Never roll back an ambiguous broadcast as if it had been refused (B-76, TX-04, TX-05, TX-20, TX-21, BET-16, BET-17, BET-23, WDR-11, WDR-12, WDR-16, API-13)

place_bet and request_withdrawal released everything on any exception from the
broadcast, including the 15s timeout and a connection dropped after the write. The
tx may have propagated: a bet's sats landed in the pool with no participant, a
withdrawal left while its row said failed and its coins were spendable again.

- client: ElectrumRpcError (subclass of ElectrumError) is raised only for a reply
  carrying a JSON-RPC `error`; timeouts, drops and write errors stay plain
  ElectrumError.
- tx/outcome.py:broadcast_with_verdict sorts a broadcast into accepted / refused /
  uncertain. A refusal is verified first: ElectrumListener.transaction_known asks
  blockchain.transaction.get of the active server and every other one (10s each) —
  any server returning the tx means accepted; the active server plus
  MIN_QUORUM_RESPONSES others all denying it means refused (ALLOW_NO_QUORUM keeps
  the reduced rule); too few answers is uncertain. "already known" wording is only a
  shortcut that skips the check. With no network to ask, a refusal is uncertain.
- place_bet / request_withdrawal / _trigger_payout use it: only a verified refusal
  releases; uncertain leaves the rows building for the reconciler, publishes SSE and
  POST /bets and POST /withdrawals answer 202 with status building; "already known"
  promotes a payout (payout_sent) like any accepted broadcast.
- An accepted transaction is fanned out to every other server
  (ElectrumListener.fan_out_transaction, best effort, off the caller's path). The RBF
  replacement in bump_fee is left for B-77, which rewrites that function.

Tests changed because the spec changed: the existing "refused broadcast" tests raised
a bare RuntimeError (now an uncertain outcome) and are made explicit refusals
(rpc_error) with a network that denies the tx; direct route calls pass a Response;
FakePayoutListener gains the network surface.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

CLAUDE.md

@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ The user communicates in Italian in chat — reply to them in Italian. Everythin
 
 ## Project status
 
-All 10 stages of the original build order are code-complete and unit-tested — 425 tests, all under `tests/unit/` (`tests/integration/` is an empty package). Beyond them: Docker + Caddy deployment, admin dashboard (`/admin`), static test UI (`/`), pending-inclusive balance display, an SSE push channel layered over the original polling, self-service password change + admin password reset, and the reconciliation/corroboration machinery below.
+All 10 stages of the original build order are code-complete and unit-tested — 463 tests, all under `tests/unit/` (`tests/integration/` is an empty package). Beyond them: Docker + Caddy deployment, admin dashboard (`/admin`), static test UI (`/`), pending-inclusive balance display, an SSE push channel layered over the original polling, self-service password change + admin password reset, and the reconciliation/corroboration machinery below.
 
 Verified on mainnet with real money: registration + address derivation, deposit crediting (1-conf), a real 10 PLM bet (broadcast → confirmed → change credited back), and one full round cycle (close → draw on a real block hash → 70/30 payout with sat math checked against the broadcast tx → confirmation → close → next round auto-opened). **Withdrawal and the RBF bump path have never been exercised against a live broadcast** — unit-tested only.
 
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ PYTHONPATH=. python scripts/decrypt_master_key.py     # ops recovery: decrypt+pr
 PYTHONPATH=. python scripts/encrypt_master_key.py     # ops bootstrap: import an externally-generated xprv (--overwrite to replace)
 PYTHONPATH=. python scripts/electrum_smoke_test.py    # manual check: connect, handshake, subscribe to headers, print the tip
 
-python -m pytest                                      # all 425 tests
+python -m pytest                                      # all 463 tests
 python -m pytest tests/unit/test_hd.py                # one file
 python -m pytest tests/unit/test_hd.py::test_derivation_is_deterministic   # one test
 ```
@@ -212,7 +212,7 @@ Both SPAs refresh on an `update` message *or* on `open` — the latter fires on
 Everything that spends money is written **before** it is broadcast and resolved against the chain afterwards; this is what makes the system recover without manual DB edits. `PendingTransaction.status`: `building` → `pending` → `confirmed`, or `failed`.
 
 - `building` is written first, UTXOs already marked `spent_txid`, and committed *before* the broadcast (`bets/service.py`, `withdrawals/service.py`, and `scheduler.py:_trigger_payout` — the same shape in four phases, so no DB session is ever held across a network call). A crash in that window leaves evidence, not coins spent on-chain with no record.
-- A refused broadcast releases the UTXOs, restores the balance, removes the participant (or marks the withdrawal `failed`), audit-logs, and raises `broadcast_failed` → **502**, since the network refused it, not the caller.
+- **Nothing is released on doubt (B-76).** `tx/outcome.py:broadcast_with_verdict` sorts a broadcast into accepted / refused / uncertain. Only an explicit JSON-RPC error (`ElectrumRpcError`) that `ElectrumListener.transaction_known` then confirms — the active server and the quorum minimum of the others all say they do not know the tx — releases the UTXOs, restores the balance, removes the participant (or marks the withdrawal `failed`), audit-logs, and raises `broadcast_failed` → **502**. If any server returns the tx, or the message is an "already known" one, it counts as accepted. A timeout, a dropped connection or a refusal that could not be verified leaves the rows `building` for the reconciler and the API answers **202**. An accepted tx is also fanned out to every other server (`fan_out_transaction`, best effort).
 - `tx/reconcile.py` asks the chain about anything still `building`/`pending`: present → promote; positively unknown → `failed` with a `failure_reason`, inputs released, domain row rolled back, `pending_tx_abandoned` logged. Grace differs by state (120s `building`, 6h `pending`, so the bumper gets its attempts first). A *transport* failure never abandons anything — only a server that positively doesn't know the tx, established by the tx's txid being absent from `get_history` of the address it spends from/pays back to (`app/tx/pending_address.py:own_address_for`) — B-41 replaced the old substring-matching on error text. A tx still in the server's mempool is never abandoned, so in practice that is what bounds the `closing` wait.
 
 **SQLite transactions are real ones (B-88).** `_register_sqlite_pragmas` sets `synchronous=FULL` and switches pysqlite's implicit `BEGIN` off (`isolation_level = None`); an engine `begin` event emits `BEGIN` itself, so every read is inside a transaction. Every transaction that moves money or fixes its state opens with `await begin_immediate(session)` (`app/db/base.py`) — `BEGIN IMMEDIATE`, i.e. the write lock *before* the first read (it commits the caller's read-only transaction first and refuses a session with unflushed changes). A lock not granted within `busy_timeout` raises `OperationalError`: **before** a broadcast that means "refuse" (`service_busy`, 503, nothing built or sent); **after** one nothing is undone — the row stays `building` and the reconciler resolves it. New money-moving write code must call `begin_immediate` first, and tests of that must use a file DB whose engine went through `_register_sqlite_pragmas` (an in-memory engine without it never emits `BEGIN IMMEDIATE`).