Implement full MVP: auth, HD wallet, Electrum client, deposits, bets, round/draw engine, payout, withdrawals, RBF, admin+audit

All 10 build-order stages complete and unit-tested (49 tests). Verified live on
mainnet: registration/address derivation, deposit crediting, a real 10 PLM bet
(broadcast + confirmed + change credited). A full round close->draw->payout
cycle was triggered live and was in progress at commit time. Withdrawal and RBF
bump are unit-tested but not yet exercised against a live broadcast. Known gaps
(scheduler doesn't resume mid-flight rounds after restart, payout has no retry,
no deployment setup, etc.) are documented in CLAUDE.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/tx/confirmation.py

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+import asyncio
+import logging
+from collections.abc import Awaitable, Callable
+
+from sqlalchemy import select
+from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession, async_sessionmaker
+
+from app.db.models import PendingTransaction
+from app.electrum.client import ElectrumClient
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+_POLL_INTERVAL_SECONDS = 10
+
+ConfirmationHandler = Callable[[AsyncSession, PendingTransaction], Awaitable[None]]
+_handlers: dict[str, ConfirmationHandler] = {}
+
+
+def register_handler(kind: str, handler: ConfirmationHandler) -> None:
+    """Domain modules (bets, rounds, withdrawals) register here so this generic
+    poller can notify them when one of their outgoing txs gets its 1st
+    confirmation, without this module importing them directly."""
+    _handlers[kind] = handler
+
+
+async def poll_once(session_factory: async_sessionmaker, client: ElectrumClient) -> int:
+    async with session_factory() as session:
+        pending = (
+            await session.scalars(select(PendingTransaction).where(PendingTransaction.status == "pending"))
+        ).all()
+        pending_ids = [p.id for p in pending]
+
+    confirmed = 0
+    for pending_id, txid, kind in [(p.id, p.current_txid, p.kind) for p in pending]:
+        tx = await client.get_transaction(txid, verbose=True)
+        if not tx or tx.get("confirmations", 0) < 1:
+            continue
+        async with session_factory() as session:
+            row = await session.get(PendingTransaction, pending_id)
+            if row is None or row.status != "pending":
+                continue
+            row.status = "confirmed"
+            handler = _handlers.get(kind)
+            if handler is not None:
+                await handler(session, row)
+            await session.commit()
+        confirmed += 1
+
+    return confirmed
+
+
+class ConfirmationPoller:
+    def __init__(self, session_factory: async_sessionmaker, get_client: Callable[[], ElectrumClient | None]):
+        self._session_factory = session_factory
+        self._get_client = get_client
+
+    async def run(self) -> None:
+        while True:
+            client = self._get_client()
+            if client is not None:
+                try:
+                    await poll_once(self._session_factory, client)
+                except asyncio.CancelledError:
+                    raise
+                except Exception:
+                    logger.exception("confirmation poll failed")
+            await asyncio.sleep(_POLL_INTERVAL_SECONDS)