diff --git a/app/wallet/balance.py b/app/wallet/balance.py
index d911549..6981eba 100644
--- a/app/wallet/balance.py
+++ b/app/wallet/balance.py
@@ -38,6 +38,15 @@ async def compute_pending_balance(session: AsyncSession, user: User) -> tuple[in
     user's own address. Adding that to cached_balance_sats gives the balance the
     user will end up with once everything currently in flight confirms.
 
+    The change output's own confirmation is credited by two independent, unordered
+    paths: the Electrum listener (event-driven, near-instant — app/deposits/service.py
+    turns it into a UtxoEvent and folds it into cached_balance_sats via
+    recompute_balance) and this module's PendingTransaction.status flip
+    (app/tx/confirmation.py, polled every 10s). The listener usually wins that race,
+    so for the gap until the poller catches up the row is still "pending" here while
+    the same sats are already inside cached_balance_sats — double-counting the
+    change unless excluded below.
+
     Returns (pending_inclusive_balance_sats, has_pending) — has_pending tells the
     caller whether this differs from the confirmed-only balance at all.
     """
@@ -54,10 +63,19 @@ async def compute_pending_balance(session: AsyncSession, user: User) -> tuple[in
         )
     ).all()
 
+    already_credited = {
+        (txid, vout)
+        for txid, vout in (
+            await session.execute(select(UtxoEvent.txid, UtxoEvent.vout).where(UtxoEvent.user_id == user.id))
+        ).all()
+    }
+
     pending_change_sats = 0
     for row in pending:
         tx = Transaction.parse(bytes.fromhex(row.raw_tx_hex))
-        for out in tx.vout:
+        for vout, out in enumerate(tx.vout):
+            if (row.current_txid, vout) in already_credited:
+                continue
             if out.script_pubkey.address(network=PLM_MAINNET) == user.address:
                 pending_change_sats += out.value
 
diff --git a/tests/unit/test_balance.py b/tests/unit/test_balance.py
index fff442c..f86a2d9 100644
--- a/tests/unit/test_balance.py
+++ b/tests/unit/test_balance.py
@@ -91,6 +91,54 @@ async def test_pending_balance_matches_confirmed_when_nothing_in_flight(session_
     assert pending_balance == 2_000_000_000
 
 
+async def test_pending_balance_does_not_double_count_change_already_credited(session_factory):
+    """The Electrum listener (event-driven) and the confirmation poller (10s
+    cadence) independently react to the same change output confirming. When the
+    listener wins that race — the common case — the change is already a
+    UtxoEvent inside cached_balance_sats while the PendingTransaction row is
+    still "pending". compute_pending_balance must not add the change a second
+    time in that window."""
+    user_id = await _make_funded_user(session_factory, 4, 1_500_000_000)
+    client = FakeElectrumClient()
+
+    async with session_factory() as session:
+        user = await session.get(User, user_id)
+        await place_bet(session, client, user)
+
+    async with session_factory() as session:
+        pending = (await session.scalars(select(PendingTransaction))).one()
+        from embit.transaction import Transaction
+
+        from app.wallet.plm_network import PLM_MAINNET
+
+        tx = Transaction.parse(bytes.fromhex(pending.raw_tx_hex))
+        change_vout, change_out = next(
+            (i, out) for i, out in enumerate(tx.vout) if out.script_pubkey.address(network=PLM_MAINNET) == user.address
+        )
+
+        user = await session.get(User, user_id)
+        # Simulate the listener having already credited the change output as
+        # confirmed, before the poller has flipped `pending.status`.
+        session.add(
+            UtxoEvent(
+                user_id=user_id,
+                txid=pending.current_txid,
+                vout=change_vout,
+                amount_sats=change_out.value,
+                confirmed_height=101,
+            )
+        )
+        await recompute_balance(session, user_id)
+        await session.commit()
+
+    async with session_factory() as session:
+        user = await session.get(User, user_id)
+        pending_balance, has_pending = await compute_pending_balance(session, user)
+
+        assert has_pending is True  # the PendingTransaction row is still "pending"
+        assert pending_balance == user.cached_balance_sats  # already-credited change isn't added again
+
+
 async def test_pending_balance_ignores_other_users_pending_transactions(session_factory):
     user_id = await _make_funded_user(session_factory, 2, 2_000_000_000)
     other_user_id = await _make_funded_user(session_factory, 3, 1_500_000_000)